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Raid Hour · YveltalNext · 1d 1h

Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Whirlipede's top six counters needs 2.81 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.31 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 12:56. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.
Whirlipede · Elite
bugpoison
Weak to
flyingrockfirepsychic
Boss CP
22,299
Boss HP
20,000
Raid timer
300s
Party used
6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Whirlipede at each attacker level
Attacker levelSix of the best counterA prepared partyA mixed local groupPrepared solo timeFaints per timer
Level 204(3.60)4(3.99)5(4.68)18:226.0
Level 254(3.11)4(3.42)5(4.06)15:455.8
Level 303(2.71)4(3.09)4(3.64)14:125.5
Level 353(2.63)3(2.96)4(3.46)13:365.4
Level 403(2.49)3(2.81)4(3.31)12:565.2
Level 453(2.38)3(2.72)4(3.18)12:305.1
Level 503(2.32)3(2.63)4(3.09)12:064.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

  • Blacephalon2.49

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

  • Blacephalon2.49
  • Rayquaza2.68
  • Mewtwo2.73
  • Reshiram2.90
  • Moltres3.03
  • Salamence3.05

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

  • Chandelure3.23
  • Toucannon3.24
  • Cinderace3.25
  • Heatran3.28
  • Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.30
  • Lunala3.32

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon
Incinerate + Mind Blown
2. Rayquaza
Air Slash + Dragon Ascent
3. Mewtwo
Psycho Cut + Psystrike
4. Reshiram
Fire Fang + Fusion Flare
5. Moltres
Fire Spin + Fly
6. Salamence
Fire Fang + Fly

See the full ranked counter list for Whirlipede · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.