Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Alolan Vulpix's top six counters needs 1.62 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.21 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:29. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Alolan Vulpix · Elite

ice

Weak to

fightingrocksteelfire

Boss CP: 17,480
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Alolan Vulpix at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.01)	3(2.28)	4(3.14)	10:30	5.9
Level 25	2(1.76)	2(1.98)	3(2.72)	9:07	5.5
Level 30	2(1.60)	2(1.79)	3(2.42)	8:14	5.2
Level 35	2(1.50)	2(1.69)	3(2.32)	7:47	4.9
Level 40	2(1.46)	2(1.62)	3(2.21)	7:29	4.7
Level 45	2(1.39)	2(1.56)	3(2.14)	7:10	4.5
Level 50	2(1.36)	2(1.51)	3(2.06)	6:57	4.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.46

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.46
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.51
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.54
Blacephalon1.68
Keldeo1.70
Lucario1.86

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Kartana2.14
Volcarona2.17
Heatran2.19
Darmanitan (Standard)2.19
Chandelure2.23
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.22

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

5. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

6. Lucario

Force Palm + Aura Sphere

See the full ranked counter list for Alolan Vulpix · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.