Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Vibrava's top six counters needs 1.27 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.77 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 5:51. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 20.

Vibrava · Elite

grounddragon

Weak to

icedragonfairy

Boss CP: 22,498
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Vibrava at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.37)	2(1.83)	3(2.52)	8:26	6.0
Level 25	2(1.20)	2(1.57)	3(2.18)	7:12	6.0
Level 30	2(1.08)	2(1.39)	2(1.95)	6:25	6.0
Level 35	2(1.04)	2(1.33)	2(1.85)	6:07	6.0
Level 40	1(0.99)	2(1.27)	2(1.77)	5:51	5.9
Level 45	1(0.95)	2(1.23)	2(1.70)	5:39	5.8
Level 50	1(0.91)	2(1.18)	2(1.65)	5:26	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Kyurem (White)0.99

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)0.99
Kyurem (Black)1.12
Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)1.34
Eternatus1.36
Baxcalibur1.39
Mamoswine1.44

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Mewtwo1.70
Palkia (Origin)1.70
Mr. Rime1.70
Frosmoth1.72
Avalugg1.74
Aurorus1.76

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

3. Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)

Ice Fang + Avalanche

4. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

5. Baxcalibur

Ice Fang + Avalanche

6. Mamoswine

Powder Snow + Avalanche

See the full ranked counter list for Vibrava · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.