Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Vibrava's top six counters needs 0.26 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.36 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 0:46. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Vibrava · Tier 3

grounddragon

Weak to

icedragonfairy

Boss CP: 9,545
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Vibrava at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.28)	1(0.37)	1(0.50)	1:05	1.8
Level 25	1(0.25)	1(0.33)	1(0.44)	0:57	1.1
Level 30	1(0.22)	1(0.28)	1(0.40)	0:50	0.6
Level 35	1(0.21)	1(0.28)	1(0.38)	0:49	0.5
Level 40	1(0.21)	1(0.26)	1(0.36)	0:46	0.4
Level 45	1(0.21)	1(0.26)	1(0.35)	0:45	0.3
Level 50	1(0.20)	1(0.25)	1(0.35)	0:44	0.2

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Kyurem (White)0.21

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Kyurem (White)0.21
Kyurem (Black)0.21
Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)0.28
Eternatus0.29
Baxcalibur0.29
Kyurem0.30

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Vanilluxe0.34
Mewtwo0.35
Frosmoth0.35
Mr. Rime0.35
Aurorus0.36
Rayquaza0.37

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

3. Galarian Darmanitan (Standard)

Ice Fang + Avalanche

4. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

5. Baxcalibur

Ice Fang + Avalanche

6. Kyurem

Dragon Breath + Glaciate

See the full ranked counter list for Vibrava · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.