Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Vanillish's top six counters needs 1.20 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.63 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 5:31. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 20.

Vanillish · Tier 5

ice

Weak to

fightingrocksteelfire

Boss CP: 25,147
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Vanillish at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.51)	2(1.68)	3(2.37)	7:43	5.8
Level 25	2(1.27)	2(1.45)	3(2.01)	6:40	5.6
Level 30	2(1.15)	2(1.31)	2(1.80)	6:01	5.2
Level 35	2(1.11)	2(1.25)	2(1.72)	5:44	4.9
Level 40	2(1.04)	2(1.20)	2(1.63)	5:31	4.6
Level 45	2(1.02)	2(1.15)	2(1.58)	5:17	4.4
Level 50	2(1.01)	2(1.11)	2(1.52)	5:07	4.3

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.04

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.04
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.13
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.15
Blacephalon1.23
Keldeo1.25
Lucario1.39

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Cinderace1.59
Chandelure1.60
Volcarona1.62
Heatran1.61
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.62
Darmanitan (Standard)1.63

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

5. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

6. Lucario

Force Palm + Aura Sphere

See the full ranked counter list for Vanillish · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.