Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Urshifu (Single Strike)'s top six counters needs 0.49 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.62 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:25. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Urshifu (Single Strike) · Tier 3

fightingdark

Weak to

fairyfightingflying

Boss CP: 22,364
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Urshifu (Single Strike) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.64)	1(0.71)	1(0.89)	2:05	4.8
Level 25	1(0.56)	1(0.60)	1(0.75)	1:45	3.3
Level 30	1(0.50)	1(0.54)	1(0.67)	1:35	2.4
Level 35	1(0.46)	1(0.52)	1(0.64)	1:31	2.2
Level 40	1(0.45)	1(0.49)	1(0.62)	1:25	1.8
Level 45	1(0.46)	1(0.48)	1(0.60)	1:25	1.7
Level 50	1(0.42)	1(0.47)	1(0.58)	1:22	1.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Enamorus (Incarnate)0.45

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Enamorus (Incarnate)0.45
Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.47
Enamorus (Therian)0.49
Xerneas0.50
Tapu Koko0.50
Tapu Bulu0.51

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Rayquaza0.58
Granbull0.58
Primarina0.59
Sylveon0.61
Zacian0.60
Galarian Rapidash0.60

The party these numbers assume

1. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Dazzling Gleam

2. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Play Rough

3. Enamorus (Therian)

Fairy Wind + Dazzling Gleam

4. Xerneas

Geomancy + Moonblast

5. Tapu Koko

Volt Switch + Nature's Madness

6. Tapu Bulu

Bullet Seed + Nature's Madness

See the full ranked counter list for Urshifu (Single Strike) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.