Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Ursaring's top six counters needs 1.13 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.37 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 3:19. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 20.

Ursaring · Shadow Tier 3

normal

Weak to

fighting

Boss CP: 20,017
Boss HP: 4,000
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Ursaring at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.64)	2(1.74)	3(2.14)	5:05	5.9
Level 25	2(1.21)	2(1.42)	2(1.74)	4:09	5.9
Level 30	2(1.03)	2(1.24)	2(1.52)	3:37	5.8
Level 35	1(0.99)	2(1.19)	2(1.43)	3:29	5.7
Level 40	1(0.95)	2(1.13)	2(1.37)	3:19	5.7
Level 45	1(0.90)	2(1.08)	2(1.33)	3:10	5.5
Level 50	1(0.87)	2(1.04)	2(1.28)	3:03	5.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Keldeo0.95

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Keldeo0.95
Terrakion1.09
Lucario1.10
Kartana1.19
Blaziken1.23
Eternatus1.23

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.29
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.31
Raikou1.34
Mewtwo1.32
Kyurem (Black)1.34
Hisuian Decidueye1.36

The party these numbers assume

1. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

2. Terrakion

Double Kick + Sacred Sword

3. Lucario

Force Palm + Aura Sphere

4. Kartana

Fury Cutter + Sacred Sword

5. Blaziken

Counter + Aura Sphere

6. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Ursaring · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.