Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Turtonator's top six counters needs 0.70 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.85 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 2:02. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Turtonator · Tier 3

firedragon

Weak to

groundrockdragon

Boss CP: 16,379
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Turtonator at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.76)	1(0.98)	2(1.22)	2:52	5.2
Level 25	1(0.68)	1(0.85)	2(1.05)	2:29	4.2
Level 30	1(0.60)	1(0.76)	1(0.93)	2:13	3.3
Level 35	1(0.59)	1(0.72)	1(0.89)	2:06	2.8
Level 40	1(0.55)	1(0.70)	1(0.85)	2:02	2.6
Level 45	1(0.53)	1(0.67)	1(0.81)	1:58	2.3
Level 50	1(0.53)	1(0.65)	1(0.79)	1:54	2.1

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Eternatus0.55

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Eternatus0.55
Palkia (Origin)0.68
Baxcalibur0.72
Kyurem (Black)0.73
Rayquaza0.74
Dialga (Origin)0.75

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Regidrago0.80
Kyurem (White)0.81
Dragonite0.81
Rampardos0.83
Groudon0.83
Glimmora0.84

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

2. Palkia (Origin)

Dragon Tail + Spacial Rend

3. Baxcalibur

Dragon Breath + Glaive Rush

4. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

5. Rayquaza

Dragon Tail + Breaking Swipe

6. Dialga (Origin)

Dragon Breath + Roar of Time

See the full ranked counter list for Turtonator · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.