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PoGoBud
Raid Hour · YveltalNext · 1d 1h

Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Torkoal's top six counters needs 0.81 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.90 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 2:21. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 30. A duo works from level 20.
Torkoal · Tier 3
fire
Weak to
groundrockwater
Boss CP
14,705
Boss HP
3,600
Raid timer
180s
Party used
6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Torkoal at each attacker level
Attacker levelSix of the best counterA prepared partyA mixed local groupPrepared solo timeFaints per timer
Level 202(1.06)2(1.15)2(1.33)3:235.5
Level 251(0.94)2(1.01)2(1.14)2:584.9
Level 301(0.78)1(0.90)2(1.00)2:374.2
Level 351(0.78)1(0.86)1(0.94)2:313.9
Level 401(0.77)1(0.81)1(0.90)2:213.5
Level 451(0.71)1(0.77)1(0.87)2:163.1
Level 501(0.68)1(0.74)1(0.85)2:092.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

  • Landorus (Therian)0.77

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

  • Landorus (Therian)0.77
  • Kyogre0.80
  • Groudon0.80
  • Inteleon0.81
  • Glimmora0.82
  • Greninja0.83

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

  • Primarina0.85
  • Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.85
  • Garchomp0.85
  • Landorus (Incarnate)0.87
  • Terrakion0.89
  • Tyrantrum0.90

The party these numbers assume

1. Landorus (Therian)
Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm
2. Kyogre
Waterfall + Origin Pulse
3. Groudon
Mud Shot + Precipice Blades
4. Inteleon
Water Gun + Hydro Cannon
5. Glimmora
Rock Throw + Meteor Beam
6. Greninja
Water Shuriken + Hydro Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Torkoal · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.