Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Paldean Tauros (Aqua)'s top six counters needs 0.65 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.74 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:54. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Paldean Tauros (Aqua) · Tier 3

fightingwater

Weak to

flyinggrasselectricpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 19,469
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Paldean Tauros (Aqua) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.85)	1(0.93)	2(1.06)	2:44	5.5
Level 25	1(0.74)	1(0.80)	1(0.92)	2:20	4.6
Level 30	1(0.67)	1(0.72)	1(0.82)	2:06	3.7
Level 35	1(0.65)	1(0.68)	1(0.78)	2:00	3.3
Level 40	1(0.62)	1(0.65)	1(0.74)	1:54	2.9
Level 45	1(0.60)	1(0.64)	1(0.72)	1:52	2.6
Level 50	1(0.57)	1(0.61)	1(0.69)	1:47	2.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Rayquaza0.62

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Rayquaza0.62
Mewtwo0.62
Enamorus (Incarnate)0.64
Regieleki0.67
Thundurus (Therian)0.68
Hoopa (Unbound)0.68

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.72
Yveltal0.72
Moltres0.73
Toucannon0.73
Tapu Koko0.73
Enamorus (Therian)0.74

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

5. Thundurus (Therian)

Volt Switch + Wildbolt Storm

6. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

See the full ranked counter list for Paldean Tauros (Aqua) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.