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Raid Hour · YveltalNext · 1d 3h

Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Tatsugiri's top six counters needs 3.28 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.19 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 15:16. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.
Mega Tatsugiri · Mega Legendary
dragonwater
Weak to
dragonfairy
Boss CP
65,300
Boss HP
22,500
Raid timer
300s
Party used
6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Tatsugiri at each attacker level
Attacker levelSix of the best counterA prepared partyA mixed local groupPrepared solo timeFaints per timer
Level 205(4.48)6(5.10)7(6.48)23:426.0
Level 254(3.18)5(4.45)6(5.65)20:406.0
Level 303(2.92)4(3.67)5(4.65)17:035.9
Level 353(2.75)4(3.41)5(4.37)15:515.9
Level 403(2.67)4(3.28)5(4.19)15:165.8
Level 453(2.55)4(3.18)5(4.04)14:475.7
Level 503(2.52)4(3.06)4(3.85)14:155.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

  • Eternatus2.67

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

  • Eternatus2.67
  • Palkia (Origin)3.27
  • Baxcalibur3.34
  • Rayquaza3.42
  • Kyurem (Black)3.48
  • Dialga (Origin)3.53

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

  • Haxorus3.89
  • Dragonite3.93
  • Dialga4.08
  • Zacian (Crowned Sword)4.12
  • Zekrom4.14
  • Enamorus (Incarnate)4.21

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus
Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon
2. Palkia (Origin)
Dragon Tail + Spacial Rend
3. Baxcalibur
Dragon Breath + Glaive Rush
4. Rayquaza
Dragon Tail + Breaking Swipe
5. Kyurem (Black)
Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock
6. Dialga (Origin)
Dragon Breath + Roar of Time

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Tatsugiri · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.