Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Tapu Lele's top six counters needs 3.15 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.60 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 14:29. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Tapu Lele · Elite

psychicfairy

Weak to

poisonghoststeel

Boss CP: 57,865
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Tapu Lele at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.39)	6(5.04)	7(6.99)	23:13	6.0
Level 25	4(3.36)	5(4.05)	6(5.97)	18:39	6.0
Level 30	4(3.14)	4(3.55)	6(5.14)	16:20	6.0
Level 35	3(2.99)	4(3.38)	5(4.84)	15:34	6.0
Level 40	3(2.73)	4(3.15)	5(4.60)	14:29	6.0
Level 45	3(2.66)	4(3.07)	5(4.36)	14:07	6.0
Level 50	3(2.62)	3(2.98)	5(4.23)	13:43	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.73

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.73
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.77
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.82
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.99
Eternatus3.73
Metagross3.84

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Melmetal4.47
Dialga (Origin)4.57
Hoopa4.57
Genesect4.58
Genesect (Burn)4.58
Genesect (Chill)4.58

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

2. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Metal Claw + Moongeist Beam

5. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

6. Metagross

Bullet Punch + Meteor Mash

See the full ranked counter list for Tapu Lele · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.