Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Tapu Lele's top six counters needs 1.90 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.66 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 8:45. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 35.

Tapu Lele · Tier 5

psychicfairy

Weak to

poisonghoststeel

Boss CP: 50,112
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Tapu Lele at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.45)	3(2.80)	5(4.13)	12:52	6.0
Level 25	3(2.06)	3(2.36)	4(3.48)	10:52	6.0
Level 30	2(1.81)	3(2.09)	3(2.98)	9:38	5.9
Level 35	2(1.74)	2(1.98)	3(2.79)	9:06	5.9
Level 40	2(1.68)	2(1.90)	3(2.66)	8:45	5.9
Level 45	2(1.56)	2(1.82)	3(2.56)	8:23	5.8
Level 50	2(1.53)	2(1.75)	3(2.47)	8:03	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.68

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.68
Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.70
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.71
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.78
Eternatus2.23
Metagross2.32

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Tinkaton2.59
Kyurem (White)2.59
Dialga2.61
Dialga (Origin)2.62
Kyurem (Black)2.67
Hoopa2.62

The party these numbers assume

1. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

2. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

3. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

4. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Metal Claw + Moongeist Beam

5. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

6. Metagross

Bullet Punch + Meteor Mash

See the full ranked counter list for Tapu Lele · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.