Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Tapu Bulu's top six counters needs 0.55 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.71 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:37. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Tapu Bulu · Tier 3

grassfairy

Weak to

poisonflyingsteelfireice

Boss CP: 24,022
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Tapu Bulu at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.68)	1(0.79)	2(1.06)	2:19	5.0
Level 25	1(0.58)	1(0.67)	1(0.91)	1:57	3.8
Level 30	1(0.53)	1(0.60)	1(0.79)	1:46	2.9
Level 35	1(0.51)	1(0.58)	1(0.75)	1:41	2.7
Level 40	1(0.49)	1(0.55)	1(0.71)	1:37	2.4
Level 45	1(0.47)	1(0.53)	1(0.69)	1:34	2.2
Level 50	1(0.45)	1(0.51)	1(0.67)	1:30	1.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Eternatus0.49

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Eternatus0.49
Naganadel0.55
Nihilego0.55
Zacian (Crowned Sword)0.57
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)0.57
Roserade0.57

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Scolipede0.68
Gengar0.68
Rayquaza0.70
Victreebel0.69
Grafaiai0.71
Vileplume0.71

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

2. Naganadel

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

3. Nihilego

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

4. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

5. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

6. Roserade

Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

See the full ranked counter list for Tapu Bulu · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.