Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Spoink's top six counters needs 2.45 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.77 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 11:34. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Spoink · Shadow Tier 5

psychic

Weak to

bugghostdark

Boss CP: 20,069
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Spoink at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.81)	4(3.56)	5(4.01)	16:48	5.8
Level 25	3(2.40)	3(2.97)	4(3.45)	14:02	5.5
Level 30	3(2.19)	3(2.69)	4(3.03)	12:41	5.3
Level 35	3(2.13)	3(2.52)	3(2.86)	11:55	5.1
Level 40	3(2.08)	3(2.45)	3(2.77)	11:34	5.0
Level 45	3(2.04)	3(2.37)	3(2.68)	11:11	4.8
Level 50	2(1.89)	3(2.30)	3(2.60)	10:51	4.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.08

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.08
Darkrai2.39
Kyurem (Black)2.52
Blacephalon2.55
Hydreigon2.58
Absol2.58

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Dragapult2.70
Hisuian Zoroark2.72
Zoroark2.72
Hoopa (Unbound)2.74
Chandelure2.76
Volcarona2.77

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

3. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

4. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

5. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

6. Absol

Snarl + Brutal Swing

See the full ranked counter list for Spoink · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.