Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 5 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Skarmory's top six counters needs 4.03 trainers (round up: 5), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 5.00 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 19:03. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Skarmory · Shadow Tier 5

steelflying

Weak to

fireelectric

Boss CP: 30,991
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Skarmory at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	8(7.07)	7(6.32)	8(7.91)	29:51	6.0
Level 25	6(5.12)	6(5.33)	7(6.67)	25:09	6.0
Level 30	5(4.15)	5(4.55)	6(5.56)	21:30	6.0
Level 35	4(4.00)	5(4.33)	6(5.31)	20:27	6.0
Level 40	4(3.90)	5(4.03)	5(5.00)	19:03	6.0
Level 45	4(3.70)	4(3.87)	5(4.81)	18:18	6.0
Level 50	4(3.59)	4(3.73)	5(4.62)	17:37	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Regieleki3.90

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

5 trainers at level 40

Regieleki3.90
Reshiram3.99
Xurkitree4.01
Zeraora4.08
Thundurus (Therian)4.09
Blacephalon4.14

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Zapdos4.79
Chandelure4.85
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)4.90
Volcarona4.93
Moltres4.94
Magnezone5.02

The party these numbers assume

1. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

2. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

3. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

4. Zeraora

Volt Switch + Plasma Fists

5. Thundurus (Therian)

Volt Switch + Wildbolt Storm

6. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

See the full ranked counter list for Skarmory · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.