Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Simisage's top six counters needs 2.24 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.78 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 10:18. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Simisage · Elite

grass

Weak to

flyingpoisonbugfireice

Boss CP: 38,022
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Simisage at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.91)	4(3.19)	5(4.36)	14:41	6.0
Level 25	3(2.57)	3(2.80)	4(3.67)	12:54	6.0
Level 30	3(2.37)	3(2.48)	4(3.05)	11:25	6.0
Level 35	3(2.22)	3(2.37)	3(2.91)	10:54	6.0
Level 40	3(2.04)	3(2.24)	3(2.78)	10:18	6.0
Level 45	2(1.99)	3(2.15)	3(2.67)	9:55	6.0
Level 50	2(1.93)	3(2.09)	3(2.58)	9:37	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)2.04

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)2.04
Rayquaza2.13
Eternatus2.22
Kyurem (Black)2.32
Reshiram2.32
Salamence2.40

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Volcarona2.66
Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.71
Naganadel2.74
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)2.76
Blaziken2.76
Ho-Oh2.75

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

3. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

4. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

5. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

6. Salamence

Fire Fang + Fly

See the full ranked counter list for Simisage · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.