Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Shuppet's top six counters needs 0.28 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.32 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 0:48. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Shuppet · Tier 3

ghost

Weak to

ghostdark

Boss CP: 8,210
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Shuppet at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.35)	1(0.40)	1(0.45)	1:10	2.7
Level 25	1(0.30)	1(0.35)	1(0.39)	1:01	1.8
Level 30	1(0.24)	1(0.31)	1(0.35)	0:55	1.3
Level 35	1(0.22)	1(0.29)	1(0.34)	0:51	1.0
Level 40	1(0.22)	1(0.28)	1(0.32)	0:48	0.8
Level 45	1(0.22)	1(0.27)	1(0.31)	0:47	0.6
Level 50	1(0.23)	1(0.26)	1(0.30)	0:46	0.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.22

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.22
Blacephalon0.28
Darkrai0.28
Kyurem (Black)0.28
Lunala0.30
Eternatus0.30

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Tyranitar0.31
Gengar0.31
Weavile0.31
Kingambit0.31
Mewtwo0.32
Polteageist0.32

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

3. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

4. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

5. Lunala

Shadow Claw + Shadow Ball

6. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Shuppet · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.