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PoGoBud
Raid Hour · YveltalNext · 22h 25m

Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Shiinotic's top six counters needs 2.11 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.76 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:43. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 50.
Shiinotic · Elite
grassfairy
Weak to
poisonflyingsteelfireice
Boss CP
32,331
Boss HP
20,000
Raid timer
300s
Party used
6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Shiinotic at each attacker level
Attacker levelSix of the best counterA prepared partyA mixed local groupPrepared solo timeFaints per timer
Level 203(2.60)4(3.04)5(4.04)13:595.9
Level 253(2.31)3(2.58)4(3.48)11:535.8
Level 303(2.05)3(2.33)4(3.07)10:425.6
Level 352(1.98)3(2.21)3(2.89)10:095.5
Level 402(1.89)3(2.11)3(2.76)9:435.3
Level 452(1.82)3(2.04)3(2.67)9:235.2
Level 502(1.74)2(1.99)3(2.56)9:095.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

  • Eternatus1.89

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

  • Eternatus1.89
  • Nihilego2.08
  • Naganadel2.08
  • Zacian (Crowned Sword)2.16
  • Necrozma (Dusk Mane)2.23
  • Roserade2.22

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

  • Scolipede2.61
  • Rayquaza2.64
  • Victreebel2.66
  • Salazzle2.68
  • Gengar2.70
  • Grafaiai2.73

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus
Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb
2. Nihilego
Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb
3. Naganadel
Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb
4. Zacian (Crowned Sword)
Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade
5. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)
Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike
6. Roserade
Poison Jab + Sludge Bomb

See the full ranked counter list for Shiinotic · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.