Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Shelmet's top six counters needs 2.50 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.91 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 11:48. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Shelmet · Shadow Tier 5

bug

Weak to

flyingrockfire

Boss CP: 13,265
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Shelmet at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.87)	4(3.38)	5(4.00)	15:58	5.7
Level 25	3(2.52)	3(2.99)	4(3.51)	14:08	5.0
Level 30	3(2.29)	3(2.71)	4(3.18)	12:49	4.1
Level 35	3(2.18)	3(2.57)	4(3.03)	12:10	3.9
Level 40	3(2.09)	3(2.50)	3(2.91)	11:48	3.6
Level 45	3(2.03)	3(2.40)	3(2.82)	11:20	3.4
Level 50	2(1.96)	3(2.32)	3(2.74)	10:59	3.1

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon2.09

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon2.09
Rayquaza2.31
Reshiram2.53
Salamence2.64
Moltres2.70
Enamorus (Incarnate)2.73

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Darmanitan (Standard)2.86
Galarian Articuno2.85
Staraptor2.86
Glimmora2.88
Eternatus2.89
Heatran2.90

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

3. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

4. Salamence

Fire Fang + Fly

5. Moltres

Fire Spin + Fly

6. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

See the full ranked counter list for Shelmet · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.