Group size estimator
How many trainers do I need to invite?
Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared
- Boss CP
- 15,317
- Boss HP
- 20,000
- Raid timer
- 300s
- Party used
- 6
Trainers needed, by attacker level
Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.
| Attacker level | Six of the best counter | A prepared party | A mixed local group | Prepared solo time | Faints per timer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level 20 | 3(2.71) | 4(3.19) | 4(3.80) | 14:42 | 5.6 |
| Level 25 | 3(2.38) | 3(2.82) | 4(3.32) | 12:59 | 5.0 |
| Level 30 | 3(2.16) | 3(2.55) | 4(3.00) | 11:43 | 4.2 |
| Level 35 | 3(2.07) | 3(2.43) | 3(2.86) | 11:12 | 4.0 |
| Level 40 | 2(1.96) | 3(2.34) | 3(2.76) | 10:47 | 3.7 |
| Level 45 | 2(1.90) | 3(2.27) | 3(2.68) | 10:27 | 3.4 |
| Level 50 | 2(1.85) | 3(2.21) | 3(2.59) | 10:10 | 3.1 |
Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.
Six of the best counter
Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.
2 trainers at level 40
- Blacephalon1.96
A prepared party
Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.
3 trainers at level 40
- Blacephalon1.96
- Rayquaza2.21
- Reshiram2.37
- Salamence2.48
- Moltres2.50
- Enamorus (Incarnate)2.54
A mixed local group
Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.
3 trainers at level 40
- Heatran2.69
- Rampardos2.69
- Blaziken2.70
- Staraptor2.74
- Darmanitan (Standard)2.74
- Galarian Articuno2.74
The party these numbers assume
See the full ranked counter list for Shelmet · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six
How this is worked out
The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.