Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Sharpedo's top six counters needs 0.93 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.05 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 4:20. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 35. A duo works from level 20.

Mega Sharpedo · Mega

waterdark

Weak to

fightingbuggrasselectricfairy

Boss CP: 36,365
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Sharpedo at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.07)	2(1.39)	2(1.59)	6:29	6.0
Level 25	1(0.94)	2(1.16)	2(1.34)	5:24	6.0
Level 30	1(0.87)	2(1.03)	2(1.17)	4:47	5.9
Level 35	1(0.79)	1(0.97)	2(1.11)	4:30	5.9
Level 40	1(0.78)	1(0.93)	2(1.05)	4:20	5.8
Level 45	1(0.75)	1(0.90)	2(1.01)	4:12	5.7
Level 50	1(0.73)	1(0.86)	1(0.97)	3:59	5.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Keldeo0.78

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Keldeo0.78
Kartana0.93
Zeraora0.94
Zekrom0.98
Regieleki0.99
Terrakion0.98

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Urshifu (Rapid Strike)1.03
Eternatus1.03
Urshifu (Single Strike)1.03
Hisuian Decidueye1.04
Tapu Koko1.03
Raikou1.05

The party these numbers assume

1. Keldeo

Low Kick + Secret Sword

2. Kartana

Fury Cutter + Sacred Sword

3. Zeraora

Spark + Plasma Fists

4. Zekrom

Charge Beam + Fusion Bolt

5. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

6. Terrakion

Double Kick + Sacred Sword

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Sharpedo · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.