Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Scrafty's top six counters needs 1.24 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.54 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 5:45. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 20.

Mega Scrafty · Mega

darkfighting

Weak to

fairyfightingflying

Boss CP: 40,234
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Scrafty at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.66)	2(1.79)	3(2.23)	8:18	5.9
Level 25	2(1.44)	2(1.52)	2(1.92)	7:04	5.9
Level 30	2(1.27)	2(1.36)	2(1.70)	6:20	5.8
Level 35	2(1.22)	2(1.30)	2(1.62)	6:02	5.6
Level 40	2(1.16)	2(1.24)	2(1.54)	5:45	5.6
Level 45	2(1.11)	2(1.19)	2(1.49)	5:32	5.5
Level 50	2(1.07)	2(1.16)	2(1.44)	5:23	5.3

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Enamorus (Incarnate)1.16

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Enamorus (Incarnate)1.16
Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.17
Enamorus (Therian)1.26
Tapu Koko1.27
Xerneas1.27
Tapu Lele1.30

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Rayquaza1.44
Primarina1.46
Zacian1.48
Granbull1.47
Sylveon1.49
Galarian Rapidash1.55

The party these numbers assume

1. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Dazzling Gleam

2. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Play Rough

3. Enamorus (Therian)

Fairy Wind + Dazzling Gleam

4. Tapu Koko

Volt Switch + Nature's Madness

5. Xerneas

Geomancy + Moonblast

6. Tapu Lele

Astonish + Nature's Madness

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Scrafty · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.