Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 5 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Scolipede's top six counters needs 4.16 trainers (round up: 5), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.94 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 19:08. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Scolipede · Super Mega

bugpoison

Weak to

flyingrockfirepsychic

Boss CP: 70,536
Boss HP: 25,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Scolipede at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	6(5.96)	7(6.19)	8(7.60)	28:29	6.0
Level 25	6(5.11)	6(5.38)	7(6.36)	24:46	6.0
Level 30	5(4.41)	5(4.63)	6(5.52)	21:20	6.0
Level 35	5(4.02)	5(4.38)	6(5.24)	20:09	6.0
Level 40	4(3.78)	5(4.16)	5(4.94)	19:08	6.0
Level 45	4(3.67)	5(4.03)	5(4.80)	18:34	6.0
Level 50	4(3.50)	4(3.85)	5(4.61)	17:44	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon3.78

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

5 trainers at level 40

Blacephalon3.78
Rayquaza3.99
Mewtwo4.09
Reshiram4.27
Salamence4.37
Moltres4.44

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Enamorus (Incarnate)4.83
Chandelure4.87
Zacian (Crowned Sword)4.88
Eternatus4.92
Lunala4.89
Lugia4.92

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

3. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

4. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

5. Salamence

Fire Fang + Fly

6. Moltres

Fire Spin + Fly

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Scolipede · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.