Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Scizor's top six counters needs 0.99 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.20 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 4:37. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 40. A duo works from level 20.

Mega Scizor · Mega

bugsteel

Weak to

fire

Boss CP: 45,403
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Scizor at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.45)	2(1.46)	2(1.75)	6:48	6.0
Level 25	2(1.08)	2(1.24)	2(1.51)	5:47	6.0
Level 30	1(0.96)	2(1.10)	2(1.33)	5:07	5.9
Level 35	1(0.93)	2(1.05)	2(1.26)	4:52	5.7
Level 40	1(0.88)	1(0.99)	2(1.20)	4:37	5.5
Level 45	1(0.83)	1(0.96)	2(1.16)	4:28	5.4
Level 50	1(0.79)	1(0.93)	2(1.12)	4:19	5.3

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Blacephalon0.88

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Blacephalon0.88
Reshiram0.92
Cinderace1.02
Heatran1.03
Volcarona1.05
Blaziken1.06

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Delphox1.14
Infernape1.17
Incineroar1.17
Volcanion1.18
Entei1.18
Typhlosion1.18

The party these numbers assume

1. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

2. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

3. Cinderace

Fire Spin + Pyroball

4. Heatran

Fire Spin + Magma Storm

5. Volcarona

Fire Spin + Overheat

6. Blaziken

Fire Spin + Blast Burn

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Scizor · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.