Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Sableye's top six counters needs 3.78 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.61 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 17:35. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Mega Sableye · Mega Legendary

darkghost

Weak to

fairy

Boss CP: 37,844
Boss HP: 22,500
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Sableye at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.57)	6(5.24)	7(6.74)	24:20	5.9
Level 25	5(4.18)	5(4.62)	6(5.69)	21:29	5.8
Level 30	4(3.65)	5(4.19)	6(5.07)	19:28	5.5
Level 35	4(3.53)	4(3.97)	5(4.82)	18:28	5.3
Level 40	4(3.44)	4(3.78)	5(4.61)	17:35	5.2
Level 45	4(3.35)	4(3.68)	5(4.43)	17:07	5.0
Level 50	4(3.25)	4(3.55)	5(4.29)	16:30	4.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.44

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.44
Enamorus (Incarnate)3.74
Eternatus3.82
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.82
Tapu Koko3.91
Tapu Lele3.96

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)4.37
Zacian4.40
Gardevoir4.43
Togekiss4.53
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)4.64
Rayquaza4.57

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Play Rough

2. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Dazzling Gleam

3. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

4. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

5. Tapu Koko

Volt Switch + Nature's Madness

6. Tapu Lele

Astonish + Nature's Madness

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Sableye · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.