Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Mega Sableye's top six counters needs 1.51 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.84 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:00. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Mega Sableye · Mega

darkghost

Weak to

fairy

Boss CP: 23,935
Boss HP: 9,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Mega Sableye at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.83)	3(2.09)	3(2.68)	9:44	5.9
Level 25	2(1.66)	2(1.84)	3(2.27)	8:34	5.7
Level 30	2(1.45)	2(1.67)	3(2.02)	7:46	5.4
Level 35	2(1.41)	2(1.59)	2(1.92)	7:23	5.2
Level 40	2(1.37)	2(1.51)	2(1.84)	7:00	5.1
Level 45	2(1.33)	2(1.46)	2(1.76)	6:48	5.0
Level 50	2(1.29)	2(1.41)	2(1.71)	6:34	4.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.37

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.37
Enamorus (Incarnate)1.48
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.52
Eternatus1.53
Tapu Koko1.55
Tapu Lele1.58

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)1.74
Zacian1.75
Gardevoir1.77
Togekiss1.82
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.84
Hatterene1.83

The party these numbers assume

1. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Play Rough

2. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Dazzling Gleam

3. Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Bash

4. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

5. Tapu Koko

Volt Switch + Nature's Madness

6. Tapu Lele

Astonish + Nature's Madness

See the full ranked counter list for Mega Sableye · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.