Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 5 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Runerigus's top six counters needs 4.05 trainers (round up: 5), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.90 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 19:07. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Runerigus · Shadow Tier 5

groundghost

Weak to

ghostwatergrassicedark

Boss CP: 34,607
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Runerigus at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	6(5.38)	7(6.05)	8(7.20)	28:36	6.0
Level 25	5(4.79)	6(5.31)	7(6.23)	25:05	6.0
Level 30	4(3.91)	5(4.79)	6(5.44)	22:36	5.9
Level 35	4(3.75)	5(4.25)	6(5.20)	20:04	5.9
Level 40	4(3.63)	5(4.05)	5(4.90)	19:07	5.8
Level 45	4(3.53)	4(3.92)	5(4.72)	18:32	5.8
Level 50	4(3.46)	4(3.82)	5(4.56)	18:01	5.8

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (Black)3.63

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

5 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (Black)3.63
Kyurem (White)3.68
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.74
Kartana4.34
Darkrai4.37
Zarude4.53

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Lunala4.78
Inteleon4.78
Eternatus4.80
Kyogre4.80
Absol4.82
Quaquaval4.86

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

2. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

3. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

4. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

5. Darkrai

Sucker Punch + Foul Play

6. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

See the full ranked counter list for Runerigus · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.