Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Riolu's top six counters needs 0.85 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.00 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 3:54. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 30. A duo works from level 20.

Riolu · Tier 5

fighting

Weak to

flyingpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 16,771
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Riolu at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.09)	2(1.17)	2(1.38)	5:24	5.2
Level 25	1(0.93)	2(1.02)	2(1.21)	4:42	4.5
Level 30	1(0.85)	1(0.92)	2(1.09)	4:14	3.6
Level 35	1(0.82)	1(0.89)	2(1.04)	4:04	3.2
Level 40	1(0.78)	1(0.85)	1(1.00)	3:54	2.9
Level 45	1(0.76)	1(0.82)	1(0.96)	3:47	2.6
Level 50	1(0.73)	1(0.80)	1(0.93)	3:40	2.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Rayquaza0.78

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Rayquaza0.78
Mewtwo0.80
Enamorus (Incarnate)0.83
Hoopa (Unbound)0.85
Tapu Lele0.90
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.91

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Toucannon0.95
Alakazam0.97
Hoopa0.98
Salamence0.99
Lunala1.00
Staraptor0.99

The party these numbers assume

1. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

2. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

3. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

4. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

5. Tapu Lele

Confusion + Nature's Madness

6. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

See the full ranked counter list for Riolu · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.