Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Quilava's top six counters needs 1.02 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.18 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 3:00. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 45. A duo works from level 20.

Quilava · Shadow Tier 3

fire

Weak to

groundrockwater

Boss CP: 12,992
Boss HP: 4,000
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Quilava at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.38)	2(1.47)	2(1.67)	4:19	5.7
Level 25	2(1.13)	2(1.28)	2(1.45)	3:45	5.4
Level 30	2(1.03)	2(1.11)	2(1.29)	3:15	4.8
Level 35	1(0.99)	2(1.07)	2(1.24)	3:08	4.5
Level 40	1(0.95)	2(1.02)	2(1.18)	3:00	4.3
Level 45	1(0.88)	1(0.99)	2(1.14)	2:53	3.8
Level 50	1(0.87)	1(0.96)	2(1.10)	2:49	3.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Landorus (Therian)0.95

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Landorus (Therian)0.95
Inteleon1.00
Rampardos1.04
Groudon1.04
Kyogre1.05
Quaquaval1.06

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Garchomp1.14
Rhyperior1.14
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.16
Tyrantrum1.15
Terrakion1.16
Landorus (Incarnate)1.18

The party these numbers assume

1. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

2. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

3. Rampardos

Smack Down + Rock Slide

4. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

5. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

6. Quaquaval

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Quilava · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.