Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Quagsire's top six counters needs 1.92 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.36 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 9:03. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 35.

Quagsire · Shadow Tier 5

waterground

Weak to

grass

Boss CP: 25,709
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Quagsire at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.67)	3(2.77)	4(3.47)	13:06	6.0
Level 25	3(2.32)	3(2.40)	3(2.97)	11:21	5.8
Level 30	2(1.86)	3(2.09)	3(2.62)	9:54	5.6
Level 35	2(1.78)	2(2.00)	3(2.51)	9:25	5.6
Level 40	2(1.71)	2(1.92)	3(2.36)	9:03	5.5
Level 45	2(1.64)	2(1.83)	3(2.29)	8:40	5.4
Level 50	2(1.57)	2(1.78)	3(2.19)	8:25	5.3

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.71

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.71
Shaymin (Sky)1.80
Zarude1.89
Rillaboom1.95
Roserade2.05
Meowscarada2.09

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Shaymin (Land)2.22
Torterra2.23
Venusaur2.24
Breloom2.31
Simisage2.33
Celebi2.32

The party these numbers assume

1. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

2. Shaymin (Sky)

Magical Leaf + Grass Knot

3. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

4. Rillaboom

Razor Leaf + Frenzy Plant

5. Roserade

Magical Leaf + Grass Knot

6. Meowscarada

Leafage + Frenzy Plant

See the full ranked counter list for Quagsire · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.