Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Pupitar's top six counters needs 1.73 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.99 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 8:10. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 30.

Pupitar · Shadow Tier 5

rockground

Weak to

watergrassfightinggroundsteelice

Boss CP: 25,329
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Pupitar at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.45)	3(2.47)	3(2.84)	11:41	6.0
Level 25	2(1.95)	3(2.11)	3(2.44)	9:58	5.9
Level 30	2(1.75)	2(1.89)	3(2.20)	8:56	5.8
Level 35	2(1.67)	2(1.81)	3(2.06)	8:32	5.7
Level 40	2(1.60)	2(1.73)	2(1.99)	8:10	5.6
Level 45	2(1.59)	2(1.67)	2(1.92)	7:52	5.6
Level 50	2(1.50)	2(1.61)	2(1.85)	7:36	5.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.60

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Kartana1.60
Shaymin (Sky)1.70
Kyogre1.72
Inteleon1.77
Zarude1.79
Quaquaval1.79

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Zacian (Crowned Sword)1.93
Roserade1.93
Breloom1.95
Tapu Bulu1.94
Chesnaught1.96
Tsareena2.00

The party these numbers assume

1. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

2. Shaymin (Sky)

Magical Leaf + Grass Knot

3. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

4. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

5. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

6. Quaquaval

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Pupitar · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.