Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Pupitar's top six counters needs 0.67 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.78 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:58. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Pupitar · Shadow Tier 3

rockground

Weak to

watergrassfightinggroundsteelice

Boss CP: 13,080
Boss HP: 4,000
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Pupitar at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.88)	1(0.95)	2(1.10)	2:46	5.4
Level 25	1(0.78)	1(0.82)	1(0.97)	2:24	4.6
Level 30	1(0.68)	1(0.73)	1(0.85)	2:09	3.6
Level 35	1(0.65)	1(0.70)	1(0.81)	2:02	3.2
Level 40	1(0.61)	1(0.67)	1(0.78)	1:58	2.8
Level 45	1(0.60)	1(0.65)	1(0.75)	1:54	2.6
Level 50	1(0.59)	1(0.62)	1(0.72)	1:50	2.3

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Kartana0.61

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Kartana0.61
Shaymin (Sky)0.66
Inteleon0.68
Kyogre0.69
Rillaboom0.70
Zarude0.70

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Primarina0.74
Kingler0.74
Breloom0.77
Tapu Bulu0.77
Decidueye0.79
Sceptile0.79

The party these numbers assume

1. Kartana

Razor Leaf + Leaf Blade

2. Shaymin (Sky)

Magical Leaf + Grass Knot

3. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

4. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

5. Rillaboom

Razor Leaf + Frenzy Plant

6. Zarude

Vine Whip + Power Whip

See the full ranked counter list for Pupitar · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.