Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 6 to be safe — 5 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Palkia (Origin)'s top six counters needs 4.15 trainers (round up: 5), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 5.39 (round up: 6). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 19:37. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Palkia (Origin) · Shadow Tier 5

waterdragon

Weak to

dragonfairy

Boss CP: 56,872
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Palkia (Origin) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	6(5.04)	7(6.31)	9(8.56)	29:48	6.0
Level 25	5(4.27)	6(5.24)	8(7.15)	24:45	6.0
Level 30	4(3.88)	5(4.66)	7(6.05)	22:01	6.0
Level 35	4(3.68)	5(4.50)	6(5.76)	21:14	6.0
Level 40	4(3.40)	5(4.15)	6(5.39)	19:37	6.0
Level 45	4(3.28)	5(4.06)	6(5.17)	19:10	6.0
Level 50	4(3.24)	4(3.91)	5(4.84)	18:28	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Eternatus3.40

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

5 trainers at level 40

Eternatus3.40
Palkia (Origin)4.21
Rayquaza4.30
Dialga (Origin)4.29
Baxcalibur4.33
Kyurem (Black)4.38

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

6 trainers at level 40

Salamence4.89
Tapu Lele5.13
Dialga5.13
Dragonite5.36
Zacian (Crowned Sword)5.39
Zekrom5.47

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

2. Palkia (Origin)

Dragon Breath + Spacial Rend

3. Rayquaza

Dragon Tail + Breaking Swipe

4. Dialga (Origin)

Dragon Breath + Roar of Time

5. Baxcalibur

Dragon Breath + Glaive Rush

6. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

See the full ranked counter list for Palkia (Origin) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.