Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Palkia (Origin)'s top six counters needs 1.54 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.99 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 4:30. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Palkia (Origin) · Shadow Tier 3

waterdragon

Weak to

dragonfairy

Boss CP: 29,368
Boss HP: 4,000
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Palkia (Origin) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.75)	3(2.27)	3(2.90)	6:39	6.0
Level 25	2(1.52)	2(1.92)	3(2.56)	5:37	6.0
Level 30	2(1.33)	2(1.71)	3(2.28)	5:01	5.9
Level 35	2(1.30)	2(1.65)	3(2.12)	4:49	5.9
Level 40	2(1.26)	2(1.54)	2(1.99)	4:30	5.8
Level 45	2(1.21)	2(1.50)	2(1.90)	4:23	5.7
Level 50	2(1.12)	2(1.43)	2(1.83)	4:12	5.6

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Eternatus1.26

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Eternatus1.26
Dialga (Origin)1.52
Palkia (Origin)1.58
Rayquaza1.59
Haxorus1.63
Baxcalibur1.64

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Zekrom1.87
Palkia1.87
Reshiram1.89
Latios1.93
Salamence1.92
Tapu Lele1.97

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

2. Dialga (Origin)

Dragon Breath + Roar of Time

3. Palkia (Origin)

Dragon Tail + Spacial Rend

4. Rayquaza

Dragon Tail + Breaking Swipe

5. Haxorus

Dragon Tail + Breaking Swipe

6. Baxcalibur

Dragon Breath + Glaive Rush

See the full ranked counter list for Palkia (Origin) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.