Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Ogerpon's top six counters needs 2.91 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.59 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 13:23. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Ogerpon · Elite

grass

Weak to

flyingpoisonbugfireice

Boss CP: 45,973
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Ogerpon at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.98)	5(4.45)	6(5.32)	20:30	6.0
Level 25	4(3.39)	4(3.67)	5(4.48)	16:54	6.0
Level 30	3(2.96)	4(3.22)	4(3.96)	14:50	6.0
Level 35	3(2.90)	4(3.11)	4(3.76)	14:17	6.0
Level 40	3(2.76)	3(2.91)	4(3.59)	13:23	6.0
Level 45	3(2.60)	3(2.80)	4(3.47)	12:54	5.9
Level 50	3(2.50)	3(2.67)	4(3.33)	12:17	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)2.76

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Kyurem (White)2.76
Rayquaza2.80
Eternatus2.83
Kyurem (Black)2.99
Reshiram3.00
Blacephalon3.07

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Volcarona3.47
Cinderace3.47
Galarian Articuno3.50
Ho-Oh3.53
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.55
Naganadel3.57

The party these numbers assume

1. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

2. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

3. Eternatus

Poison Jab + Dynamax Cannon

4. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

5. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

6. Blacephalon

Incinerate + Mind Blown

See the full ranked counter list for Ogerpon · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.