Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Numel's top six counters needs 0.63 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.81 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 2:55. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Numel · Tier 5

fireground

Weak to

waterground

Boss CP: 15,911
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Numel at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.85)	1(0.90)	2(1.14)	4:08	5.9
Level 25	1(0.74)	1(0.78)	1(0.99)	3:36	5.5
Level 30	1(0.66)	1(0.69)	1(0.89)	3:12	4.6
Level 35	1(0.63)	1(0.66)	1(0.85)	3:03	4.1
Level 40	1(0.59)	1(0.63)	1(0.81)	2:55	3.6
Level 45	1(0.57)	1(0.61)	1(0.78)	2:49	3.3
Level 50	1(0.56)	1(0.60)	1(0.75)	2:44	3.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Inteleon0.59

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Inteleon0.59
Kyogre0.62
Greninja0.63
Quaquaval0.64
Kingler0.65
Primarina0.67

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Feraligatr0.75
Volcanion0.75
Gyarados0.75
Golisopod0.75
Crabominable0.79
Sharpedo0.80

The party these numbers assume

1. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

2. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

3. Greninja

Water Shuriken + Hydro Cannon

4. Quaquaval

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

5. Kingler

Bubble + Crabhammer

6. Primarina

Waterfall + Hydro Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Numel · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.