Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Necrozma (Dusk Mane)'s top six counters needs 2.47 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.81 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 11:22. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Necrozma (Dusk Mane) · Tier 5

psychicsteel

Weak to

groundghostfiredark

Boss CP: 54,822
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Necrozma (Dusk Mane) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.81)	5(4.05)	5(4.33)	18:37	6.0
Level 25	4(3.33)	4(3.41)	4(3.64)	15:41	6.0
Level 30	3(2.51)	3(2.87)	4(3.12)	13:13	6.0
Level 35	3(2.34)	3(2.71)	3(2.93)	12:28	6.0
Level 40	3(2.19)	3(2.47)	3(2.81)	11:22	5.9
Level 45	3(2.18)	3(2.41)	3(2.68)	11:04	5.9
Level 50	2(1.87)	3(2.24)	3(2.57)	10:18	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.19

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.19
Reshiram2.36
Heatran2.53
Blacephalon2.48
Cinderace2.62
Lunala2.65

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Excadrill2.77
Landorus (Therian)2.72
Ho-Oh2.77
Gholdengo2.81
Tyranitar2.74
Delphox2.78

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Reshiram

Fire Fang + Fusion Flare

3. Heatran

Fire Spin + Magma Storm

4. Blacephalon

Astonish + Mind Blown

5. Cinderace

Fire Spin + Pyroball

6. Lunala

Shadow Claw + Shadow Ball

See the full ranked counter list for Necrozma (Dusk Mane) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.