Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Necrozma (Dawn Wings)'s top six counters needs 1.62 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.92 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:28. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 30.

Necrozma (Dawn Wings) · Tier 5

psychicghost

Weak to

ghostdark

Boss CP: 54,822
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Necrozma (Dawn Wings) at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.52)	3(2.47)	4(3.11)	11:22	6.0
Level 25	3(2.31)	3(2.16)	3(2.56)	9:57	6.0
Level 30	2(1.57)	2(1.78)	3(2.15)	8:12	6.0
Level 35	2(1.44)	2(1.68)	3(2.02)	7:45	5.9
Level 40	2(1.42)	2(1.62)	2(1.92)	7:28	5.9
Level 45	2(1.41)	2(1.58)	2(1.84)	7:17	5.9
Level 50	2(1.31)	2(1.51)	2(1.79)	6:57	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.42

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.42
Darkrai1.55
Hydreigon1.61
Tyranitar1.63
Kingambit1.74
Incineroar1.79

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Dragapult1.84
Hoopa (Unbound)1.85
Urshifu (Single Strike)1.91
Zarude1.92
Zoroark1.87
Gholdengo1.90

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

3. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

4. Tyranitar

Bite + Brutal Swing

5. Kingambit

Snarl + Foul Play

6. Incineroar

Snarl + Darkest Lariat

See the full ranked counter list for Necrozma (Dawn Wings) · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.