Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 3 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Natu's top six counters needs 1.61 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 2.03 (round up: 3). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 7:37. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 30.

Natu · Shadow Tier 5

psychicflying

Weak to

rockghostelectricicedark

Boss CP: 18,610
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Natu at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	3(2.26)	3(2.34)	3(2.87)	11:03	6.0
Level 25	3(2.01)	3(2.04)	3(2.51)	9:39	6.0
Level 30	2(1.62)	2(1.80)	3(2.24)	8:30	6.0
Level 35	2(1.60)	2(1.71)	3(2.14)	8:04	6.0
Level 40	2(1.52)	2(1.61)	3(2.03)	7:37	5.9
Level 45	2(1.47)	2(1.57)	2(1.97)	7:24	5.8
Level 50	2(1.40)	2(1.52)	2(1.90)	7:11	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.52

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.52
Kyurem (Black)1.54
Kyurem (White)1.53
Regieleki1.63
Zeraora1.72
Xurkitree1.74

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

3 trainers at level 40

Hydreigon1.97
Tyranitar1.98
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)1.99
Eternatus2.00
Glimmora2.02
Absol2.03

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

3. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

4. Regieleki

Thunder Shock + Thunder Cage

5. Zeraora

Volt Switch + Plasma Fists

6. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

See the full ranked counter list for Natu · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.