Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Natu's top six counters needs 0.31 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.39 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 0:55. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Natu · Tier 3

psychicflying

Weak to

rockghostelectricicedark

Boss CP: 9,117
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Natu at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.44)	1(0.44)	1(0.55)	1:17	2.2
Level 25	1(0.36)	1(0.38)	1(0.48)	1:07	1.4
Level 30	1(0.35)	1(0.35)	1(0.43)	1:02	1.0
Level 35	1(0.30)	1(0.33)	1(0.41)	0:58	0.8
Level 40	1(0.27)	1(0.31)	1(0.39)	0:55	0.7
Level 45	1(0.27)	1(0.30)	1(0.38)	0:53	0.5
Level 50	1(0.27)	1(0.29)	1(0.37)	0:51	0.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.27

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.27
Regieleki0.30
Kyurem (Black)0.30
Kyurem (White)0.31
Xurkitree0.34
Thundurus (Therian)0.35

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Hisuian Zoroark0.39
Hydreigon0.39
Lunala0.39
Absol0.39
Gengar0.39
Raikou0.39

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Regieleki

Lock-On + Thunder Cage

3. Kyurem (Black)

Shadow Claw + Freeze Shock

4. Kyurem (White)

Ice Fang + Ice Burn

5. Xurkitree

Thunder Shock + Discharge

6. Thundurus (Therian)

Volt Switch + Wildbolt Storm

See the full ranked counter list for Natu · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.