Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 3 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Naganadel's top six counters needs 2.48 trainers (round up: 3), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.15 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 11:26. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Naganadel · Elite

poisondragon

Weak to

groundpsychicicedragon

Boss CP: 51,860
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Naganadel at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.35)	4(3.92)	6(5.11)	18:02	6.0
Level 25	3(2.55)	4(3.26)	5(4.11)	15:01	6.0
Level 30	3(2.32)	3(2.81)	4(3.60)	12:55	6.0
Level 35	3(2.15)	3(2.65)	4(3.36)	12:10	6.0
Level 40	3(2.02)	3(2.48)	4(3.15)	11:26	6.0
Level 45	2(1.99)	3(2.39)	4(3.01)	11:01	6.0
Level 50	2(1.88)	3(2.31)	3(2.88)	10:37	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Eternatus2.02

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

3 trainers at level 40

Eternatus2.02
Kyurem (Black)2.25
Kyurem (White)2.44
Baxcalibur2.73
Mewtwo2.73
Palkia (Origin)2.72

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Hoopa (Unbound)3.03
Regidrago3.04
Groudon3.09
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.13
Haxorus3.03
Zamazenta (Crowned Shield)3.18

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

2. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

3. Kyurem (White)

Dragon Breath + Ice Burn

4. Baxcalibur

Dragon Breath + Glaive Rush

5. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

6. Palkia (Origin)

Dragon Tail + Spacial Rend

See the full ranked counter list for Naganadel · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.