Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Naganadel's top six counters needs 1.47 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.86 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 6:46. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Naganadel · Tier 5

poisondragon

Weak to

groundpsychicicedragon

Boss CP: 44,912
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Naganadel at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.71)	3(2.26)	3(2.78)	10:25	6.0
Level 25	2(1.50)	2(1.85)	3(2.34)	8:31	6.0
Level 30	2(1.36)	2(1.63)	3(2.05)	7:30	6.0
Level 35	2(1.29)	2(1.54)	2(1.94)	7:06	6.0
Level 40	2(1.24)	2(1.47)	2(1.86)	6:46	5.9
Level 45	2(1.18)	2(1.42)	2(1.80)	6:32	5.9
Level 50	2(1.10)	2(1.37)	2(1.72)	6:17	5.9

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Eternatus1.24

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Eternatus1.24
Kyurem (Black)1.31
Kyurem (White)1.48
Mewtwo1.57
Palkia (Origin)1.61
Baxcalibur1.61

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dusk Mane)1.77
Dragapult1.77
Hoopa (Unbound)1.80
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.83
Groudon1.86
Dialga1.87

The party these numbers assume

1. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

2. Kyurem (Black)

Dragon Tail + Freeze Shock

3. Kyurem (White)

Dragon Breath + Ice Burn

4. Mewtwo

Confusion + Psystrike

5. Palkia (Origin)

Dragon Tail + Spacial Rend

6. Baxcalibur

Ice Fang + Glaive Rush

See the full ranked counter list for Naganadel · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.