Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Alolan Muk's top six counters needs 3.60 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.47 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 16:59. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Alolan Muk · Shadow Tier 5

poisondark

Weak to

ground

Boss CP: 34,333
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Alolan Muk at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.76)	6(5.23)	7(6.79)	24:43	5.8
Level 25	5(4.34)	5(4.56)	6(5.63)	21:33	5.7
Level 30	4(3.54)	5(4.09)	5(4.95)	19:19	5.6
Level 35	4(3.44)	4(3.85)	5(4.73)	18:12	5.5
Level 40	4(3.25)	4(3.60)	5(4.47)	16:59	5.5
Level 45	4(3.17)	4(3.51)	5(4.32)	16:35	5.4
Level 50	4(3.06)	4(3.41)	5(4.19)	16:07	5.4

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

4 trainers at level 40

Landorus (Therian)3.25

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Landorus (Therian)3.25
Groudon3.41
Eternatus3.60
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)3.79
Garchomp3.74
Zacian (Crowned Sword)3.78

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Regigigas4.14
Dialga (Origin)4.16
Keldeo4.22
Kyurem (White)4.32
Krookodile4.35
Rhydon4.50

The party these numbers assume

1. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

2. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

3. Eternatus

Dragon Tail + Dynamax Cannon

4. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Metal Claw + Sunsteel Strike

5. Garchomp

Mud Shot + Earth Power

6. Zacian (Crowned Sword)

Metal Claw + Behemoth Blade

See the full ranked counter list for Alolan Muk · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.