Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Muk's top six counters needs 3.24 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.90 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 15:19. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Muk · Shadow Tier 5

poison

Weak to

groundpsychic

Boss CP: 34,333
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Muk at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.65)	5(5.00)	6(5.89)	23:36	5.9
Level 25	4(3.58)	5(4.22)	6(5.12)	19:57	5.8
Level 30	4(3.24)	4(3.56)	5(4.46)	16:50	5.7
Level 35	4(3.14)	4(3.36)	5(4.15)	15:51	5.6
Level 40	3(3.00)	4(3.24)	4(3.90)	15:19	5.6
Level 45	3(2.89)	4(3.14)	4(3.75)	14:51	5.5
Level 50	3(2.82)	4(3.05)	4(3.66)	14:24	5.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Mewtwo3.00

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Mewtwo3.00
Landorus (Therian)3.15
Hoopa (Unbound)3.25
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)3.30
Groudon3.38
Necrozma (Dawn Wings)3.38

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Metagross3.80
Landorus (Incarnate)3.81
Mamoswine3.84
Latios3.84
Kyurem (Black)3.89
Hoopa3.86

The party these numbers assume

1. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

2. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

3. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

4. Necrozma (Dusk Mane)

Psycho Cut + Sunsteel Strike

5. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

6. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

See the full ranked counter list for Muk · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.