Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 4 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Marshadow's top six counters needs 3.13 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 3.84 (round up: 4). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 14:24. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Marshadow · Elite

fightingghost

Weak to

flyingghostpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 56,695
Boss HP: 20,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Marshadow at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	4(3.76)	5(4.97)	6(5.90)	22:53	6.0
Level 25	4(3.25)	5(4.12)	5(4.88)	18:57	6.0
Level 30	3(2.71)	4(3.51)	5(4.32)	16:09	6.0
Level 35	3(2.65)	4(3.33)	5(4.06)	15:18	6.0
Level 40	3(2.50)	4(3.13)	4(3.84)	14:24	6.0
Level 45	3(2.40)	4(3.01)	4(3.68)	13:50	6.0
Level 50	3(2.34)	3(2.92)	4(3.53)	13:27	6.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.50

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.50
Mewtwo3.07
Rayquaza3.09
Enamorus (Incarnate)3.35
Hoopa (Unbound)3.35
Tapu Lele3.42

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

4 trainers at level 40

Yveltal3.74
Salamence3.76
Eternatus3.80
Hoopa3.86
Gengar3.86
Giratina (Origin)3.84

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Mewtwo

Confusion + Psystrike

3. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

4. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

5. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

6. Tapu Lele

Confusion + Nature's Madness

See the full ranked counter list for Marshadow · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.