Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Marshadow's top six counters needs 0.63 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.77 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 1:51. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Marshadow · Tier 3

fightingghost

Weak to

flyingghostpsychicfairy

Boss CP: 24,053
Boss HP: 3,600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Marshadow at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.71)	1(0.93)	2(1.14)	2:43	5.6
Level 25	1(0.63)	1(0.77)	1(0.97)	2:15	4.7
Level 30	1(0.54)	1(0.69)	1(0.86)	2:02	3.9
Level 35	1(0.52)	1(0.66)	1(0.81)	1:55	3.5
Level 40	1(0.51)	1(0.63)	1(0.77)	1:51	3.1
Level 45	1(0.47)	1(0.61)	1(0.74)	1:47	2.9
Level 50	1(0.44)	1(0.58)	1(0.72)	1:42	2.5

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.51

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.51
Mewtwo0.62
Rayquaza0.64
Enamorus (Incarnate)0.67
Hoopa (Unbound)0.67
Tapu Lele0.70

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Lunala0.74
Necrozma (Dusk Mane)0.75
Toucannon0.74
Hoopa0.76
Kyurem (Black)0.76
Salamence0.77

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Mewtwo

Psycho Cut + Psystrike

3. Rayquaza

Air Slash + Dragon Ascent

4. Enamorus (Incarnate)

Fairy Wind + Fly

5. Hoopa (Unbound)

Confusion + Psychic

6. Tapu Lele

Confusion + Nature's Madness

See the full ranked counter list for Marshadow · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.