Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 5 to be safe — 4 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Alolan Marowak's top six counters needs 3.52 trainers (round up: 4), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 4.03 (round up: 5). The raid timer is 300 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 16:39. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party.

Alolan Marowak · Shadow Tier 5

fireghost

Weak to

groundrockghostwaterdark

Boss CP: 27,608
Boss HP: 15,000
Raid timer: 300s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Alolan Marowak at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	5(4.92)	6(5.04)	6(5.89)	23:49	6.0
Level 25	5(4.63)	5(4.46)	6(5.09)	21:05	6.0
Level 30	4(3.17)	4(3.92)	5(4.55)	18:31	5.9
Level 35	4(3.03)	4(3.62)	5(4.29)	17:06	5.9
Level 40	3(2.93)	4(3.52)	5(4.03)	16:39	5.8
Level 45	3(2.84)	4(3.44)	4(3.88)	16:16	5.8
Level 50	3(2.77)	4(3.31)	4(3.74)	15:39	5.7

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

3 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.93

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

4 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)2.93
Landorus (Therian)3.38
Darkrai3.67
Hydreigon3.70
Tyranitar3.73
Inteleon3.72

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

5 trainers at level 40

Groudon3.94
Eternatus3.94
Greninja3.98
Dragapult3.99
Primarina4.02
Rhyperior4.03

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Shadow Claw + Moongeist Beam

2. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

3. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

4. Hydreigon

Bite + Brutal Swing

5. Tyranitar

Bite + Brutal Swing

6. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

See the full ranked counter list for Alolan Marowak · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.