Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 2 to be safe — 2 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Alolan Marowak's top six counters needs 1.36 trainers (round up: 2), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 1.58 (round up: 2). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 3:59. No level in this range makes it soloable with a prepared party. A duo works from level 25.

Alolan Marowak · Shadow Tier 3

fireghost

Weak to

groundrockghostwaterdark

Boss CP: 14,256
Boss HP: 4,000
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Alolan Marowak at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	2(1.82)	3(2.04)	3(2.31)	5:58	5.6
Level 25	2(1.51)	2(1.78)	2(1.98)	5:12	5.2
Level 30	2(1.27)	2(1.55)	2(1.75)	4:33	4.8
Level 35	2(1.17)	2(1.43)	2(1.65)	4:12	4.7
Level 40	2(1.07)	2(1.36)	2(1.58)	3:59	4.5
Level 45	2(1.03)	2(1.33)	2(1.52)	3:53	4.3
Level 50	2(1.05)	2(1.29)	2(1.48)	3:46	4.0

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.07

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

2 trainers at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)1.07
Landorus (Therian)1.35
Groudon1.41
Darkrai1.42
Kyogre1.45
Blacephalon1.45

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

2 trainers at level 40

Eternatus1.55
Rampardos1.54
Chandelure1.54
Lunala1.55
Primarina1.57
Kingler1.57

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Landorus (Therian)

Mud Shot + Sandsear Storm

3. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

4. Darkrai

Snarl + Foul Play

5. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

6. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

See the full ranked counter list for Alolan Marowak · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.