Group size estimator

How many trainers do I need to invite?

The Estimator is already "trainers of this attacker needed to finish inside the timer", so this page does not invent a number: it reads it off the boss's own ranked counter list for three realistic parties and re-simulates each of them at every level from 20 to 50.

Raid bossTierIVsWeatherFriendshipDodgingShadow attackersMega attackersLegendary attackers

Invite 1 to be safe — 1 if everyone is prepared

At level 40, a party of Alolan Marowak's top six counters needs 0.15 trainers (round up: 1), and a mixed lobby of ranks 13-24 needs 0.18 (round up: 1). The raid timer is 180 seconds and one prepared trainer alone would take 0:28. A prepared solo becomes possible at level 20. A duo works from level 20.

Alolan Marowak · Shadow Tier 1

fireghost

Weak to

groundrockghostwaterdark

Boss CP: 5,521
Boss HP: 600
Raid timer: 180s
Party used: 6

Trainers needed, by attacker level

Scroll sideways for the mixed-lobby column.

Trainers needed to beat Alolan Marowak at each attacker level
Attacker level	Six of the best counter	A prepared party	A mixed local group	Prepared solo time	Faints per timer
Level 20	1(0.18)	1(0.22)	1(0.25)	0:39	1.0
Level 25	1(0.16)	1(0.20)	1(0.22)	0:36	0.7
Level 30	1(0.16)	1(0.18)	1(0.20)	0:32	0.4
Level 35	1(0.16)	1(0.17)	1(0.19)	0:31	0.2
Level 40	1(0.14)	1(0.15)	1(0.18)	0:28	0.2
Level 45	1(0.13)	1(0.15)	1(0.18)	0:27	0.1
Level 50	1(0.11)	1(0.14)	1(0.17)	0:26	0.1

Whole trainers in bold, the raw estimator in brackets — 2.04 means two trainers is right on the line and three is comfortable.

Six of the best counter

Every trainer brings six copies of the single best counter — the theoretical floor.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.14

A prepared party

Each trainer brings the boss's top six counters, powered up and correctly TM'd.

1 trainer at level 40

Necrozma (Dawn Wings)0.14
Blacephalon0.15
Groudon0.15
Darkrai0.16
Inteleon0.16
Kyogre0.16

A mixed local group

Ranks 13-24: reasonable but unoptimised parties, which is what a public lobby usually is.

1 trainer at level 40

Kingler0.17
Lunala0.18
Hydreigon0.17
Dragapult0.18
Tyranitar0.18
Primarina0.18

The party these numbers assume

1. Necrozma (Dawn Wings)

Psycho Cut + Moongeist Beam

2. Blacephalon

Astonish + Shadow Ball

3. Groudon

Mud Shot + Precipice Blades

4. Darkrai

Sucker Punch + Foul Play

5. Inteleon

Water Gun + Hydro Cannon

6. Kyogre

Waterfall + Origin Pulse

See the full ranked counter list for Alolan Marowak · check a real lobby (win chance, who brings what) · make a share card of the top six

How this is worked out

The boss is ranked once at level 40 with rankCached (the same memoised call /raids makes), then the three bands — rank 1, ranks 1-6, ranks 13-24 — are re-simulated at each attacker level with an 8-run Monte Carlo each. Holding the party fixed and moving only its level is deliberate: it answers "what if my party were level 20" rather than "what would a level-20 player's completely different party be", and it is about ten times cheaper than re-ranking every attacker seven times. The Estimator itself is Pokebattler's definition, time to win including rejoin time divided by the raid timer.